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Infectious Diseases

Informa UK Limited

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Infectious Diseases's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Elevated baseline adiponectin levels predict increased risk of progression to tuberculosis among interferon gamma release assay-positive close contacts

Amorim, G.; Araujo-Pereira, M.; Dill-McFarland, K. A.; Rangel, F. A.; Mendelsohn, S. C.; Figueiredo, M. C.; Cordeiro-Santos, M.; Rolla, V. C.; Mello, F. C. Q.; Rebeiro, P. F.; Scriba, T. J.; Hawn, T. R.; Andrade, B. B.; Sterling, T. R.; RePORT-Brazil consortium,

2026-05-18 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.14.26352472 medRxiv
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Background: Without tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT), approximately 5% of individuals infected with M. tuberculosis progress to active tuberculosis (TB) disease. Recent studies have identified body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m2 as a predictor of TB progression, but additional markers are needed to better identify persons at increased risk. Methods: Close contacts of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB were enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort from 2015 to 2019 and followed for up to 24 months. Analyses were restricted to interferon-{gamma} release assay (IGRA)-positive contacts who did not receive TPT or received <30 days of isoniazid. Prediction models to identify close contacts at increased TB risk were constructed using two complementary approaches: incremental models used BMI as the base predictor and evaluated whether baseline whole-blood transcriptomic signatures, human genetic polymorphism risk scores derived from low-pass whole-genome sequencing, and BMI-related plasma biomarkers improved model discrimination. Agnostic models did not impose BMI in the model and used penalized regression for predictor selection. Results: Among 285 close contacts, 15 (5%) progressed to TB. The model with BMI as unique predictor had a C-index of 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55; 0.77). Adding Rajan5 or Duffy9 transcriptomic signature scores to BMI improved discrimination compared with BMI alone, with C-indices of 0.78 (95% CI 0.62; 0.99) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.61; 0.89), respectively, but did not further improve discrimination after accounting for adiponectin. Adding adiponectin to BMI increased the C-index to 0.80 (95% CI 0.68; 0.91), while adiponectin alone captured most of the discriminatory performance in agnostic models (C-index, 0.80, 95% CI 0.69; 0.91). Genetic risk scores, leptin, and the adiponectin:leptin ratio did not improve model discrimination compared with the BMI-only model. In exploratory post hoc analyses, higher adiponectin was associated with increased risk of progression to TB, with each two-fold increase associated with a higher hazard of TB (HR 2.91, 95% CI 1.73; 4.91, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Baseline adiponectin strongly predicted progression to TB among close contacts and captured most of the discriminatory information contained in epidemiological and transcriptomic variables. Its consistent selection across modelling approaches supports adiponectin as a promising biomarker for TB risk stratification.

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COVID-19 vaccination and the risk of cardiovascular and thromboembolic events after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Heymans, S.; Heidecker, B.; Marjenberg, Z.; Green, R.; Pliakas, T.; Lip, G. Y. H.; Lüscher, T. F.; Abduljawad, S.

2026-05-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353568 medRxiv
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Background and Aims SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and venous thromboembolism events. We aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection on the risk of these events post-infection. Methods Embase and MEDLINE were searched from January 2021 to 11 September 2025, supplemented by citation searching. Observational studies were included if they reported risks of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, or venous thromboembolic events after SARS-CoV-2 infection between different vaccination groups (e.g. unvaccinated, vaccinated, or booster vaccinated), or reported risk of events after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with no infection, stratified by vaccination status. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate pooled hazard ratios (HRs) comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals across prespecified outcomes. Results Twenty-three studies were included in the systematic review; most reported an association between vaccination and a reduced risk of post-infection vascular events. Ten studies were included across meta-analyses comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Pre-infection vaccination was associated with significantly reduced risks of composite cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events (HR 0.60, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.51-0.69), stroke (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.88), acute coronary syndrome (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.95), arrhythmias (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98), and venous thromboembolism (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.36-0.73). No statistically significant reduction was observed for heart failure (HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.47-1.10]). Conclusions Pre-infection COVID-19 vaccination is associated with lower risks of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and venous thromboembolism events following SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre- and post-Omicron eras, supporting its role within broader prevention strategies

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Burden Of Community-Acquired Pneumonia In Hungary: A Nationwide Analysis Of Incidence, Hospitalization Rates And Mortality Between 2016 And 2020

Kiss, Z.; Meszner, Z.; Kulcsar, A.; Bogos, K.; Habon, T.; Moldvay, J.; Papai-Szekely, Z.; Tamasi, L.; Torzsa, P.; Voko, Z.; Wittmann, I.; Molnar, G. A.; Rokszin, G.; Kovacs, V.; Abonyi-Toth, Z.; Barcza, Z.; Szabo, T. G.; Varnai, M.; Odhiambo, R.; Berta, A.; Darida, M.; Horvath, I.; Kovacs, K. A.; Neuhauser, N.; Lakatos, B.; Muller, V.

2026-05-28 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354111 medRxiv
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Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a major global health burden disproportionately affecting older adults and people with comorbidities, with Streptococcus pneumoniae as one of the leading bacterial causes in Europe. The Hungarian Occurrence and Burden of PnEumonia (Hungarian-HOPE) study examined the incidence, hospitalization rates, and mortality of CAP between 2016 and 2020 in Hungary. Methods: The National Health Insurance Fund database was used to identify adult CAP patients (all-cause) based on ICD-10 codes J10-18. Outcomes included CAP incidence, 0-15-day hospitalization, and 0-30-day mortality after hospitalization, stratified by age, sex, and comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], asthma, cardiovascular disease [CVD], and type 1 and 2 diabetes [T1DM, T2DM]). Risk maps visualized relative risk gradients across population strata. Results: During the pre-pandemic period (2016-2019), over 100,000 CAP cases and more than 50,000 hospitalizations were recorded annually. In 2020, recorded cases fell to approximately 98,000, while hospitalizations increased to 66,200. Hospitalization rates increased from 25.1% in 2016 to 29.1% in 2019, then increased to 43.1% in 2020. The 30-day mortality among hospitalized patients rose from 22.7% in 2016 to 23.6% in 2019. Incidence, hospitalization, and mortality all increased with age. Relative to healthy males aged 30-39 years, CAP risk escalated steeply in the [&ge;]80 years cohort (incidence 5-15-fold; hospitalization >3-fold; mortality 11-24-fold) and was further amplified by COPD, CVD, or T2DM, with a lesser effect for T1DM. Conclusions: The results highlight the substantial age- and comorbidity-driven CAP burden in Hungary and support prioritization of preventive strategies including pneumococcal vaccination for older adults and high-risk groups.

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Risk of progression to pulmonary tuberculosis among household contacts with chest radiographic abnormalities in South Africa

Mulenga, H.; Muchiri, E.; Mendelsohn, S. C.; Malherbe, S. T.; Moloantoa, T.; Tameris, M.; Maruri, F.; Noor, F.; Panchia, R.; Hlongwane, K.; Stanley, K.; Hadley, K.; Martinson, N.; Walzl, G.; Scriba, T. J.; Hatherill, M.; RePORT South Africa Study Team,

2026-06-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354586 medRxiv
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Background High-risk subgroups among household contacts of persons with tuberculosis (TB) might benefit from additional interventions. However, the significance of an abnormal baseline chest radiograph (CXR) suggestive of TB, despite negative sputum microbiology, is uncertain. Methods Adults ([&ge;]18 years) with recent household TB exposure were enrolled at three South African sites (April 2021-September 2022). All participants underwent symptom screening, CXR, and sputum Xpert Ultra and MGIT culture. Pulmonary TB diagnosis was microbiologically-confirmed. Participants without prevalent TB were followed for symptomatic incident TB through 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with abnormal CXR suggestive of TB. Poisson regression estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results Baseline CXR were available for 795/846 (94.0%) participants without prevalent TB and were abnormal in 157/795 (19.7%); associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio, aOR=1.04, 95%CI 1.02-1.05); prior TB (aOR=6.39, 95%CI 4.18-9.78); and current smoking (aOR=1.61, 95%CI 1.00-2.62). Symptomatic incident TB developed in 8/795 (1.0%) participants, including 7/8 (87.5%) who were asymptomatic and 4/8 (50.0%) with abnormal CXR at baseline. TB incidence was higher in those with abnormal versus normal CXR (aIRR=4.11, 95%CI 1.29-13.09), but after median 12.1 (IQR 11.1-13.1) months follow-up, 153/157 (97.5%) had not progressed to incident TB. Conclusions Adult household contacts with CXR abnormalities, but without prevalent TB, had a four-fold higher incidence of TB within one year, compared to those with normal CXR. This additional risk warrants targeted preventive treatment and extended surveillance, but since most remained TB-free, therapeutic TB treatment is not justified.

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Prevalence, Genetic Diversity, and Landscape Associations of Orthohantavirus puumalaense in Bank Voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) from Northern Sweden

Anton, A. J.; Ulrich, R. G.; Allendorf, V.; Bergmann, H.; Breuer, L.; Dai, Z.; Drewes, S.; Hegemann, A.; Meheretu, Y.; Ecke, F.; Knauf, S.

2026-06-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354689 medRxiv
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Puumala hantavirus (PUUV, Orthohantavirus puumalaense) is one of the primary causative agents of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Europe and is maintained in natural populations of the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus, also known as Myodes glareolus). Despite public health relevance, we are only starting to understand the molecular properties and interplay between environmental and ecological factors of the pathogen that explain PUUV infection in bank voles. Here, we investigated PUUV occurrence, genetic structure, and environmental associations in bank voles sampled from two boreal forest areas in northern Sweden, during a complete vole population cycle (2020-2023). In total, 519 voles were screened for PUUV RNA using targeted reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR). PUUV small (S-) segment RNA was detected in both study areas and observed infection patterns varied with sex, body weight, season and year. Specifically, we detected significant interactions between season and area and between season and body weight, with males showing consistently higher infection probabilities. Infection probability was also higher during periods of increased vole abundance and peaked in 2022. Phylogenetic analysis of partial S segment sequences demonstrated that all detected sequences clustered within the North-Scandinavian PUUV lineage, with no apparent spatial differentiation, indicating limited genetic structuring between the sampling areas. Habitat analyses at multiple spatial scales did not identify significant associations between PUUV occurrence and land-use variables, suggesting that infection dynamics were driven primarily by host demographic and temporal factors rather than broad-scale habitat composition. These findings highlight the importance of host demographics and temporal dynamics in shaping PUUV epidemiology in its reservoir, and provide additional insight into the molecular ecology of PUUV in northern Europe.

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Longitudinal performance of the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale in individuals with severe erythema nodosum leprosum: responsiveness, trajectories and clinical features - a secondary analysis of the Methotrexate and Prednisolone study - MaPs in ENL

de Barros, B.; Hamza, A.; Getachew, A.; Medhi, M.; Sultana, F.; Acharya, B.; Pai, V.; Wakade, A.; Bhame, B.; Hagge, D.; Napit, I.; Shah, M.; Maximus, N.; Darlong, J.; Listiawan, M. Y.; Doni, S.; Nicholls, P.; Genser, B.; Lambert, S. M.; Lockwood, D. N. J.; Walker, S. L.

2026-06-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354110 medRxiv
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe inflammatory complication of lepromatous leprosy characterised by recurrent inflammatory episodes often requiring prolonged immunosuppression. The severity of ENL can be quantified using the validated and reliable ENLIST ENL Severity Scale (EESS). The longitudinal course of ENL and how it is captured using standardised severity measures has not been well described. We prospectively evaluated the changes in ENL severity over time using the EESS in a randomised clinical trial. Methods We conducted a post-hoc analysis of participants enrolled in the Methotrexate and Prednisolone Study in ENL, an international multicentre randomised controlled trial conducted in Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, and Nepal. Adults with severe ENL (EESS score [&ge;]9) were followed for 60 weeks with repeated EESS assessments. Longitudinal trajectories were analysed using mixed-effects regression models. Item-level analyses characterised the clinical phenotype captured by the scale. Associations between EESS score, prednisolone exposure, and dermatology-specific health-related quality of life measured using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) were examined. Findings A total of 135 participants contributed 1,958 EESS assessments. Mean EESS declined rapidly during the first four weeks of treatment (-2.10 points/week; 95% CI -2.36 to -1.84; p<0.001), increased modestly during reduction in corticosteroid dose (weeks 4-20), and gradually declined thereafter. Severe ENL (EESS score [&ge;]9) occurred in 20.6% of visits and was characterised primarily by pain and cutaneous inflammatory manifestations. Participants who required additional prednisolone had persistently higher EESS scores and showed limited improvement compared with those who did not receive additional prednisolone. Longitudinal EESS scores were strongly correlated with the DLQI score (Spearmans {rho}=0.75; p<0.001). Conclusion The EESS captures clinically meaningful changes in ENL severity, aligns with treatment decisions, and reflects patient-reported severity over time. These findings support the use of the EESS as a robust tool for monitoring ENL severity in both clinical research and routine care.

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Methotrexate and Prednisolone compared to placebo and prednisolone in the treatment of Erythema Nodosum Leprosum - an international multicentre, double-blind randomised controlled clinical trial - MaPs in ENL

de Barros, B.; Sultana, F.; Maximus, N.; Pai, V. V.; Wakade, A.; Bhame, B.; Acharya, B.; Hamza, A.; Getachew, A.; Alinda, M. D.; Listiawan, M. Y.; Nigusse, S. D.; Hagge, D. A.; Napit, I.; Shah, M.; Darlong, J.; Nicholls, P.; Bernd, B.; Lambert, S. M.; Lockwood, D. N. J.; Walker, S. L.

2026-05-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353561 medRxiv
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe inflammatory complication of leprosy that often requires prolonged corticosteroid therapy which is associated with adverse effects. Methotrexate is an affordable immunomodulatory agent with limited evidence for its use in ENL treatment. We evaluated whether weekly oral methotrexate in additional to prednisolone reduces the need for additional prednisolone in adults with severe ENL. Methods and Findings We performed an international, multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial conducted at five leprosy referral centres in Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, and Nepal. Adults aged 18-60 years with severe ENL were randomised to receive oral methotrexate and prednisolone, or matching placebo and prednisolone. All participants received an identical prednisolone regime over 20 weeks and were followed for 60 weeks. The primary outcome was time to first ENL flare requiring additional prednisolone, assessed over 24 and 48 weeks. Between January 2023 and June 2024, 231 individuals were screened and 137 were randomised (68 methotrexate and prednisolone; 69 placebo and prednisolone). By 24 weeks, 85/137 (62.0%) participants experienced an ENL flare requiring additional prednisolone; the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for methotrexate versus placebo was 0.98 (95% CI 0.62-1.54). By 48 weeks, 102/137 (74.5%) experienced an ENL flare; adjusted HR 0.95 (95% CI 0.62-1.43). Secondary outcomes were similar: methotrexate did not reduce ENL severity at first flare, flare frequency, or severity of subsequent flares. Health-related quality of life improved substantially in both groups with no evidence of a differential treatment effect. Methotrexate was generally well tolerated. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03775460). Conclusions Oral methotrexate added to prednisolone did not reduce the requirement for additional prednisolone or delay ENL flares compared to placebo and prednisolone, and our study does not support the use of methotrexate for severe ENL.

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Detection of Anti-H5 Antibodies in People with Exposure to Wild Birds in Northern Canada

Wallace, H. L.; Hiebert, M.; Hunter, M.; Halbrook, M.; Harrigan, R. J.; Bogoch, I. I.; Rimoin, A. W.; Shaw, S. Y.; Larcombe, L.; Orr, P. H.; Kindrachuk, J.

2026-05-26 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353994 medRxiv
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Using a commercially available H5 serology assay, we identified a 7.4% (n=5/68) anti-H5 seroreactivity rate among hunters in Northern Canada. All participants reported close contact with wild birds.

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Widespread circulation of West Nile and Usutu viruses in sedentary and migratory avifauna: A Two-Year Study (2024-2025) of active surveillance in South of France

Beaubaton, R.; Revel, J.; Pigeyre, L.; Lepeule, A.; Joly, J.; de Franceschi, C.; Charmantier, A.; Vollot, B.; Simonin, Y.

2026-05-21 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.21.726855 medRxiv
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West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) are neurotropic Orthoflaviviruses sharing a similar enzootic transmission cycle primarily involving Culex pipiens mosquitoes as vectors and birds as amplifying hosts. First identified in Africa, both viruses established endemicity across Europe over the past two decades, most likely introduced and spread by migratory bird species along Mediterranean flyways. In avian species, infection outcomes range from subclinical to fatal neuroinvasive disease, varying by viral strain, host immunity, and species susceptibility. Southern France emerges as a key hotspot for the circulation of these viruses, supported by diverse avian habitats conducive to year-round viral maintenance. This study investigated the prevalence of WNV and USUV in more than 2500 sedentary and migratory wild birds from these regions during 2024-2025 using molecular surveillance. Samples were collected using mist net and bird boxes, across multiple passerine and non-passerine taxa, spanning wetlands, urban fringes, and agricultural zones. Our analyses revealed widespread viral circulation across diverse species, mainly among passerines such as great tits, house sparrows, and barn swallows with USUV detected at higher rates than WNV in both study years. Overall prevalence was markedly higher in 2024 than in 2025, potentially reflecting climatic or ecological drivers. Migratory individuals likely seed viral introductions during seasonal passages, whereas resident populations sustain local enzootic cycles, facilitating overwintering persistence. These results highlight the pivotal role of mixed avifauna in arbovirus dynamics within Mediterranean Europe and emphasize the necessity for integrated, year-round surveillance targeting high-risk species and habitats. Enhanced monitoring will aid in predicting spillover risks and informing vector control strategies to mitigate zoonotic threats.

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Influenza vaccine effectiveness against pneumonia and COPD exacerbations among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Thailand: A national test-negative design study, 2013-2024

Chawalchitiporn, S.; Tantiyavarong, P.; Kittiwatanachod, J.; Naosri, S.; Prasert, K.; Praphasiri, P.

2026-05-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354178 medRxiv
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Background/Objectives: Influenza infection is a major trigger of pneumonia and acute exacerbations among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, national laboratory-confirmed evidence on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in this high-risk population remains limited. This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination against influenza-associated pneumonia and COPD exacerbations among patients with COPD in Thailand.Methods: We conducted a nationwide retrospective test-negative design study using administrative healthcare data from the National Health Security Office linked with laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data between June 1, 2013, and May 31, 2025, covering twelve influenza seasons (2013-2024). COPD-related clinical episodes among patients aged [&ge;]40 years who presented with pneumonia or acute exacerbation of COPD and underwent RT-PCR testing for influenza were included. Multilevel Poisson regression models were used to estimate adjusted risk ratios (RRs), and VE was calculated as (1 - adjusted RR) x 100.Results: A total of 606,072 COPD-related clinical episodes were included, of which 192,224 (31.7%) were influenza-positive. The overall adjusted VE against influenza-associated pneumonia was 63.2% (95% CI: 62.5-64.0), while VE against influenza-associated COPD exacerbations was 67.0% (95% CI: 48.8-78.8). VE estimates were broadly similar across age groups and remained substantial across COPD severity strata. Although point estimates were numerically higher in severe and very severe COPD, subgroup differences should be interpreted cautiously.Conclusions: Seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with substantial protection against influenza-associated pneumonia and COPD exacerbations among patients with COPD in Thailand.

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Preferences for treatment for latent tuberculosis infection in primary care among people in the United States at increased risk of tuberculosis: a pilot survey

Aschmann, H. E.; Tang, A. S.; Lee, M.; Salcedo, K. L.; Murrill, M. T.; Chen, G.; Ouyang, Y.; Lui, K.; Rahman, M.; Flood, J.; Kerkhoff, A. D.; Lin, T. K.; Shete, P. B.; for the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium,

2026-05-22 primary care research 10.64898/2026.05.20.26352199 medRxiv
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Objectives Tuberculosis (TB) in the United States disproportionately affects non-U.S.-born individuals. While testing this population for TB infection is recommended, little is known about individuals' willingness to take treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI). To address this gap, we conducted a pilot preference survey among individuals from countries with high TB incidence. Design Cross-sectional survey supported by language concordant community health workers. Setting Federally qualified health center, serving a primarily Asian immigrant community, in San Francisco. Participants Adults eligible for risk-based LTBI testing based on place of birth seeking primary care. Outcome measures Perspectives on TB disease, risk of reinfection, and willingness to accept treatment if diagnosed with LTBI conditional on different factors, such as side effects, costs, and other treatment burden. Results Among 60 participants, the median age was 48 years (interquartile range 35-63 years), 52% were women, and 100% spoke Chinese. Infecting others (n=35, 58%), risk of death (n=30, 50%), and potential isolation (n=25, 42%) were the most worrisome consequences of TB disease. Reinfection risk, risk of liver damage, cost, TB progression risk, clinic visits, and blood draws were most often considered moderately or very important when deciding whether to take LTBI treatment (n=53 to 57, 88-95%). While most participants (n=56, 93%) were willing to take treatment if diagnosed with LTBI even at a 10-year TB progression risk below 1% and willing to accept a risk of liver damage (n=41, 68%), less than half would accept LTBI treatment if there were any associated cost (n=28, 47%). Finally, many participants had concerns about their reinfection risk after completing LTBI treatment (n=34, 57%). Conclusions Amongst surveyed participants, TB disease and its consequences such as hospitalization, death and infecting others were worrisome, and participants had a high level of willingness to take treatment if diagnosed with LTBI. Future assessments of how people weigh tradeoffs regarding LTBI diagnosis and treatment could inform interventions to increase LTBI treatment acceptance and completion.

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Undetected isoniazid resistance leads to rifampin-resistant tuberculosis

Spies, R.; Hanh, N. H.; Phu, P. T.; Lan, L. K.; Lan, K.; Hue, N. N.; Quang, N. L.; Thu, D. D. A.; Huong, N. T. L.; Thao, T. L. T. N.; Tram, T. T. B.; Ha, V. T. N.; Ha, D. T. M.; Hai, N. P.; Thuan, N. H.; Quy, T. T. K.; Lan, N. H.; Dreyer, V.; Niemann, S.; Crook, D.; Van, L. H.; Thwaites, G.; Thuong, N. T. T.; Choisy, M.; Watson, J.; Walker, T.

2026-05-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353840 medRxiv
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Background: Isoniazid resistance is the most common form of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) globally. However, WHO-recommended molecular tests available to most TB patients worldwide detect rifampin resistance only, risking under-treatment of isoniazid-resistant, rifampin-susceptible TB (HR-TB) and subsequent emergence of rifampin resistance. Methods: This prospective study (2020-2024) aimed to collect and archive sputum specimens from all adults diagnosed with rifampin-susceptible pulmonary TB in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Cases were participants who developed rifampin-resistant recurrence; controls had rifampin-susceptible recurrence or no recurrence. Whole-genome sequencing of paired isolates distinguished acquired rifampin resistance from reinfection. The effect of pre-existing isoniazid resistance on rifampin resistance acquisition was estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting, and the projected epidemiological impact of routine HR-TB testing was modelled. Results: 42,843 people were diagnosed with TB during the study period, from whom we archived 33,843 sputum samples. We enrolled 1,241 participants, 873 (70.4%) of whom had analysable data. 51/873 (5.8%) acquired rifampin resistance, of whom 49/51 (96.1%) had undetected isoniazid resistance. The weighted risk of acquired rifampin resistance was 2.98% (95% CI 2.08-4.50) with undetected isoniazid resistance, versus 0.03% (0.00-0.08) without (risk ratio105.42 (33.43-309.69)). Modelling projected that universal HR-TB diagnosis and treatment would reduce RR-TB incidence by 46% (35-61) over 10 years in Vietnam, with reductions of 26% (12-43) projected even where HR-TB prevalence was as low as 5%. Conclusions: Undetected, under-treated HR-TB confers a 100 fold increased risk of acquiring rifampin resistance. Routine isoniazid susceptibility testing combined with effective HR-TB treatment could substantially reduce the burden of RR-TB.

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Who infected the reported cases? Evidence from 678,482 COVID-19 cases with identified infector collected in routine surveillance in the Netherlands, 2020-2022.

Backer, J. A.; Leung, K. Y.; Andeweg, S. P.; Van de Kassteele, J.; Veldhuijzen, I.; Hahne, S.; Wallinga, J.

2026-05-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.15.26347859 medRxiv
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Background During infectious disease outbreaks, characteristics of reported cases are routinely collected. These give information on becoming infected but not on infecting others. We assess whether linking infectees to infectors, together with their characteristics, can help understand transmission. Methods From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands, reported cases were asked to identify their most probable infector in routine surveillance, enabling the linking of cases. We assess for the period 27 February 2020 - 11 April 2022 whether the infectees of these transmission pairs are representative of all reported cases, whether the transmission pairs yield verifiable estimates of epidemiological characteristics (here the serial interval), and whether they provide information on transmission that cannot be obtained otherwise. Results Of 8,003,008 reported cases, 678,482 (8.5%) could be linked to their most probable infector. These infectees were largely representative of the reported cases regarding age group, sex, and geographical location. The mean serial interval of 3.6 days (sd 3.4 days) from transmission pairs aligns with literature. Transmissions between age groups largely follow known contact patterns. Most transmissions in September 2021 occurred between persons who were not (fully) vaccinated, indicating the effectiveness of the vaccine, and relatively few between persons with different vaccination status, indicating assortative mixing in vaccination status. Conclusion Transmission pairs can be efficiently collected in routine surveillance, providing insight into disease transmission. The current post-pandemic period provides an excellent opportunity to adjust reporting systems for linking infectees to their most probable infector as preparation for future outbreaks.

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Predictors of treatment outcomes in adults with drug-sensitive Tuberculosis in Maharashtra, India: A retrospective study

Parthasarathy, R.; Raj, Y.; Majumder, N.; Mitra, M.; Mehra, S.; Rao, R.; Rajan, S.

2026-05-15 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.12.26352988 medRxiv
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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading infectious cause of death worldwide, with India accounting for nearly one-fourth of global TB cases. Ni-kshay, the countrys digital case-based TB notification platform is rich in data pertaining to the continuum of care of TB patients. This study aims to develop a standardized analytical approach to programmatic data to identify predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes and mortality among adult drug-sensitive TB patients at the state level for Maharashtra during 2021 and 2022. Methods: Two separate analyses were undertaken comparing treatment success with: (1) unfavourable outcomes (death, treatment failure, loss to follow-up, regimen change, or not evaluated); and (2) mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compute adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for key risk factors, adjusting for age, gender, and weight. Results: The final cohort included 323,124 cases for unfavourable outcome analysis and 315,579 cases for mortality analysis. Increasing age, male gender, lower body weight, known HIV and diabetes comorbidities, tobacco and alcohol consumption, and "unknown" status for behavioural risks and comorbidity status were significantly associated with increased odds of both unfavourable outcomes and mortality. Conclusions: This study highlights the utility of programmatic data in identifying high-risk TB patients and offers a reproducible analytic framework.

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Pathogen and host biomarkers to aid early diagnosis and prognosis of tuberculous meningitis

Singh, U. B.; K P, A.; A K, A.; Singh, K.; Wig, N.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kanga, U.

2026-05-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.27.728147 medRxiv
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BackgroundTuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most sinister form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB), associated with high mortality due to delayed diagnosis and limited sensitivity of conventional and molecular tests. Current study evaluated the diagnostic utility of Lipoarabinomannan antigen (LAM) detection in CSF and urine and explored host inflammatory biomarkers for diagnosis and prognosis of TBM. MethodsThis prospective observational study enrolled 80 patients with presumptive TBM at a tertiary care centre. CSF samples were subjected to AFB microscopy, liquid culture(MGIT-960), GeneXpert MTB/RIF (GX), and LAM lateral flow assay. Urine LAM was performed at baseline. Serum and CSF levels of IL-1{beta}, IL-6, TNF-, IFN-{gamma}, IL-17A, and IP-10 were measured at baseline and after 1 month treatment. ResultsAmong 80 participants, 23 (28.7%) had definite TBM and 46 (57.5%) had probable TBM. CSF LAM sensitivity and specificity against microbiological reference standards was 43.5% and 80.7%, while urine LAM sensitivity (60.9%) and specificity 82.5% was higher. Against composite reference standards, both CSF and urine LAM showed reduced sensitivity but achieved 100% specificity. Serum IL-1{beta} showed the best diagnostic performance (AUC 0.943; sensitivity 88.9%, specificity 90.9%). Elevated serum and CSF IP-10 levels were associated with poor outcomes, whereas declining IL-6 and TNF- levels correlated with treatment response. ConclusionLAM detection in CSF and urine may serve as a highly specific, rapid rule-in test for TBM. Host inflammatory biomarkers, especially IL-1{beta} and IP-10, show additional diagnostic and prognostic value. Combining LAM testing with cytokine biomarkers may improve early diagnosis and efficient clinical management of TBM.

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Geographical targeting of active case finding for tuberculosis in Pakistan using artificial intelligence software (SPOT-TB): a pragmatic stepped wedge cluster randomized control trial.

Mahfooz, A.; Latif, A.; Zaidi, S. M. A.; Ahmed, W.; Nawaz, N.; Reza, T. E.; Tahir, A.; Ur Rehman, F.; Naveed, S.; Shahid, A.; Ali, F.; Emmanuel, F.

2026-05-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.20.26348577 medRxiv
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Background Community-wide active case-finding (ACF) is being increasingly implemented as a tuberculosis (TB) elimination intervention. However, conventional site selection strategies may result in low yields from screening. We evaluated whether an artificial intelligence (AI) software guided targeting strategy could improve detection of TB during screening activities (called camps) relative to routine approaches to site selection in the programmatic setting in Pakistan. Methods We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial embedded within Global Fund supported ACF activities implemented by Pakistan s National TB Program and private sector partners. Thirty mobile X-ray van teams operating in 68 districts were randomly assigned to transition from routine site selection approaches (based on field-staff experience and historical data) to an AI-guided targeting strategy, using the software MATCH-AI. We assessed the effect of the intervention on the primary outcome, Camp Positivity Yield, defined as the number of individuals diagnosed with bacteriologically confirmed TB per camp, using generalised linear mixed models. The primary analysis was by intention to treat. Camps conducted within a 5-km radius of the AI selected locations were included in a validated per-protocol analysis. We conducted several district-level subgroup analyses. This trial is registered, number NCT06017843. Findings Between August 2023 and September 2024, 3,936 screening camps were conducted (2,046 control, 1,890 intervention), screening 269,254 individuals. In the intention-to-treat analysis, Camp Positivity Yield was 7% higher in the intervention group relative to the control group, however this difference was not statistically significant (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.07, 95% CI: 0.94 -1.22). In the validated per-protocol analysis, Camp Positivity Yield was 32% higher in the intervention group relative to the control group (adjusted RR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.12-1.54). Yields were highest in districts that had moderate baseline yields of 0.5-1% per population screened prior to the trial (adjusted RR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.13 - 2.18) and in rural districts (adjusted RR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.23 -1.65). Interpretation The use of an AI-guided targeting strategy significantly increased detection of bacteriologically confirmed TB during active case-finding in the validated per-protocol analysis, relative to conventional site-selection approaches employed by field-staff. This software may be considered as a supportive tool to improve the efficiency of community-based TB case-finding interventions in other high burden countries.

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HPV prevalence, vaccination coverage and intention to get vaccinated among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men: Evaluation of Quebec's (Canada) HPV vaccination program

Sauvageau, C.; Fourmigue, A.; Ouakki, M.; Lambert, G.; Burchell, A. N.; Coutlee, F.; de Pokomandy, A.; Brisson, M.; Grennan, T.; Dvorakova, M.; Grace, D.; Tan, D. H. S.; Hart, T. A.; Cox, J.

2026-05-17 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.13.26352734 medRxiv
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Objectives In Quebec, Canada, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been publicly-funded since January 2016 for gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) aged [&le;]26 years. The study aimed to analyze data collected in Greater Montreal (Engage study) to evaluate the HPV vaccination program for GBM in Quebec. Study Design Engage is a cohort of sexually active GBM aged [&ge;]16 recruited via respondent-driven-sampling (RDS) in Canada. Participants completed a questionnaire and tested for sexually transmitted infections. Methods RDS-II weights were applied to adjust for recruitment. Subgroups were compared using standardized mean differences. Odds ratios of HPV vaccination and prevalence ratios of anal HPV infection adjusted for potential confounders were estimated using robust regression models. Results Of 1179 participants, 309 were eligible for free HPV vaccination. Vaccine coverage among eligible GBM was 42%. Among those who disclosed same-sex sexual activity and discussed HPV vaccination with their healthcare provider, coverage reached 82%. Anal HPV prevalence among eligible GBM was 26.5% for [&ge;]1 HPV-6/11/16/18 genotypes without significant difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Among unvaccinated GBM aged [&le;]26 who were aware of the vaccine, 60% intended to get vaccinated within the next year. Conclusions One to two years after GBM aged [&le;]26 were included in the Quebec HPV vaccination program, 42% of eligible GBM in Greater Montreal had been vaccinated. Anal HPV prevalence was high among GBM. Vaccinees were more likely to self-report a prior STI diagnosis. Offering vaccination to all preadolescents in schools appears essential to maximize vaccination benefits.

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High prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth co-infections in persons with tuberculosis in South India

Narasimhan, P. B.; Jain, K.; Rajkumari, N.; Dauphinais, M. R.; Priyanga, J. R.; Shaikh, S.; Patel, J. U.; Babu, S. P.; Cintron, C.; Karoly, M.; Carwile, M. E.; Liu, A. F.; Maloomian, K.; Locks, L. M.; Mehta, S.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, U. B.; Ellner, J. J.; Salgame, P.; Heysell, S. K.; Hochberg, N. S.; Lakshminarayanan, S.; Sinha, P.

2026-06-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353735 medRxiv
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Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are a plausible but under-characterized comorbidity in tuberculosis. In this prospective South Indian cohort, multiplex stool PCR detected STH in 43% of 137 adults with pulmonary tuberculosis and 34% of 230 household contacts. Food insecurity independently predicted co-infection. Current adult deworming gaps warrant evaluation.

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One size fits all: A systematic review of the sample types used for the diagnostics of respiratory viruses in children

Allicock, O. M.; Dogra, A.; Cho, J. H.; Rojas, K.; Hasson, H. O.; Omene, B.; Funaro, M. C.; Laxton, C. S.; Yildirim, I. S.

2026-06-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354258 medRxiv
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Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs remain the dominant gold standard for respiratory infection diagnostics. While there has been increased use of alternative sample types since the COVID-19 pandemic, guidance on their use for detecting respiratory viruses is not yet definitive, especially for children. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy and tolerability of multiple respiratory specimen types for detecting respiratory viruses in pediatric populations. Searches were conducted on July 17, 2025 in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus, with screening and data extraction performed in Covidence. English-language primary research articles published since 2000 comparing respiratory virus detection rates in children, using nucleic acid amplification tests between paired respiratory specimens, were included. Risk of bias was assessed using Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies criteria. We calculated pooled sensitivities and specificities of index specimens: nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA), mid-turbinate swabs (MT), anterior nasal swabs (ANS), oropharyngeal swabs (OP), and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL), as compared to the reference, NP swabs, using random-effects modeling, firstly without discrimination by virus. Index specimens were then grouped by sample collection site as nasal, oral, and lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens for virus-specific analyses. Overall performance and statistical validity were evaluated by hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) analysis. Data regarding sampling tolerability was also assessed. We screened 2,448 studies and identified 36 publications (total N participants = 10,687) that reported diagnostic test accuracy using paired index-reference data in children. Of these, 18 (total N participants = 4,310) used NP specimens as the reference and were included in the diagnostic test accuracy analysis. Virus-agnostic pooled sensitivity estimates indicated that MT (0.92%) performed most similarly to NP, though sensitivities of ANS (0.79%) and OP (0.70%) were also moderately high for detection of any respiratory virus. BAL sensitivity was the lowest (0.37%). All sample types demonstrated high specificity (0.98%-0.99%). Group estimates and HSROC statistics found that nasal specimens, when grouped, had the highest sensitivity and accuracy for all examined viruses, including for influenza (92%) and RSV (90%). By comparison, oral and LRT specimens performed less well, with more variability, though both showed moderately high sensitivities for RSV (78%, 76%, respectively) and influenza (82%, 80%, respectively), and LRT samples showed high sensitivity for HMPV (82%). Analysis of sample tolerability found that NP swabs consistently ranked as the least comfortable and least preferred, while nasal swabs and saliva both performed well. Datasets for LRT and oral specimens were sparser than for nasal, and this contributed to greater variability, underscoring the need for further diagnostic accuracy studies on alternatives to NP sampling. These data support the viability of nasal and oral alternatives to NP swabs and affirm their application in pediatric care, particularly in outpatient settings. Such alternatives could greatly improve sampling tolerability and increase global access, including in resource-limited settings, to accurate diagnostic methods for respiratory infections.

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SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Status and MIS-C Incidence: A Systematic Review

Katherine Carroll, K.; Yang, H.; Mastrogiannis, A.; Rojas, K.; Cervia, J. S.

2026-05-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353349 medRxiv
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Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare but serious condition associated with pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection. While COVID-19 vaccines prevent infection and reduce severity, less conclusive evidence exists regarding their role in preventing MIS-C during breakthrough infections. This systematic review assessed the impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on MIS-C risk during breakthrough infection. Cross-sectional studies, surveillance studies, and cohort studies were included. Of the 944 studies identified, 6 were included. A significant protective effect was seen in patients who received two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination after exclusion of a biased sample (d= 0.71 [95% CI 0.07 to 1.35; p=0.03]). A trend towards a protective effect was seen after one dose of vaccination, but this effect was not statistically significant. Current literature supports a protective effect of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination against development of MIS-C in breakthrough COVID-19. The evidence supports clinician advocacy for continued vaccination of children against SARS-CoV-2.